Saudi Arabia may support a major Yemeni offensive against the Houthis while avoiding direct involvement due to the risks of another war.

Aden’s electricity collapse, rooted in corruption and mismanagement, has sparked mass protests that the Southern Transitional Council is trying to exploit politically, but public distrust, security constraints, and regional interventions make a full-scale uprising or clear political outcome unlikely.

On the evening of May 3, 2026, the southern city of Aden was shaken by a crime that revived memories of the lawlessness that followed Yemen’s war.

Southern Yemen remains unstable as Saudi Arabia manages competing local actors by containing, rather than dismantling, the STC, which still retains significant political and military influence despite dissolution efforts and emerging rivals.

Saudi Arabia’s Yemen approach depends on fragmented proxies that failed to stabilize the country, while the Islah party remains a structured but mistrusted actor whose role hinges on a shift toward real partnership.